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Rough McKean-Vlasov dynamics for robust ensemble Kalman filtering

2021

Motivated by the challenge of incorporating data into misspecified and multiscale dynamical models, we study a McKean-Vlasov equation that contains the data stream as a common driving rough path. This setting allows us to prove well-posedness as well as continuity with respect to the driver in an appropriate rough-path topology. The latter property is key in our subsequent development of a robust data assimilation methodology: We establish propagation of chaos for the associated interacting particle system, which in turn is suggestive of a numerical scheme that can be viewed as an extension of the ensemble Kalman filter to a rough-path framework. Finally, we discuss a data-driven method bas…

60L20 60L90 60H10 60F99 65C35 62M05Probability (math.PR)FOS: MathematicsMathematics - Statistics TheoryMathematics - Numerical AnalysisNumerical Analysis (math.NA)Statistics Theory (math.ST)Mathematics - Probability
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